Odds Of Winning Slot Machine Jackpot
Slot machines are the most exciting casino games in the world. The combination of simplicity and huge jackpots - along with plenty of psychological factors designed in the game (best explained in Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas by Natasha Dow Schull) ensure that Americans keep pouring billions of dollars a year into slots. The downside for customers? You'll lose by a wide margin in the long run, and in general the bigger the jackpot, the more of an edge the slot machine has over you.
You can increase your chances in the long run, though, by choosing the right games at the right casinos -- it's not unheard of that you will lose five times the amount on average that you would have lost if you chose the best slot machines and played at the best online casinos.
The first tip that will help you to increase your chances of hitting a jackpot is to time the machines. Odds of hitting a slot machine jackpot In general, the higher the jackpot, the harder it is to hit. Exactly as you should expect. The lowest odds I've found are 1 in 32,768 (for a 1000-coin jackpot on a flavor of.
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The intention of this slot machine guide is to explain everything you need to know about slot machines in order to minimize your losses and give yourself the best chances to win money. If you're just looking for a high-quality, reliable slots online casino to play at, here are my top recommendations:
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How Real-Money Slots Work - The Basics
A slot machine has no feelings. The amount of winnings it pays are dictated by the EPROM chip and the random number generator ('RNG') inside the machine. It doesn't consider whether someone has recently won or lost -- every spin of the reels is random.
It's possible to influence your chances of winning at slots. When you press Spin, the RNG generates a random number (between one and a billion, for example) for each reel of the machine. Every number represents one of the symbols (the more numbers represent a symbol, the more it is 'weighted' in the machine).
The EPROM chip then determines whether you've won with the combination of symbols or not; the more winning combinations there are, and the more the player wins per winning combination, the higher the odds of winning and the payback of the machine.
Suggesting you have all the information available, calculating your chances of winning at slots is simple: multiply the probability of each outcome with what those outcomes pay, and then sum the results. It's always under 100% (otherwise casinos would make no profit) and often near 90% (casinos make a lot of money from slots).
Here's an example of an imaginary slot machine (let's call it King of Cats) with three winning combinations -- a real-life slot machine works the same way, but likely with more ways of winning at slots:
Combination | Pays | Probability | Return |
Three Lions | 2500 | 0.001% | 0.025 |
Three Tigers | 1000 | 0.015% | 0.15 |
Three Jaguars | 400 | 0.05% | 0.2 |
Three Leopards | 50 | 0.5% | 0.25 |
Three Cheetahs | 5 | 7% | 0.35 |
Total | 3955 | 7.566% | 0.975 |
The slot machine above would return 97.5% to players in the long run. However, we rarely know the odds of slot machines. We do know the paytable - how much each winning combination pays to players - but we have no idea of the probability of getting that winning combination.
To calculate the probability of a winning combination, we need to know is how many stops there are for each symbol. For example, in the machine above there could be 45 stops and one of them would be a Lion symbol. By calculating (1/45)*(1/45)*(1/45) we get 0.001%, or the probability of hitting three Lion symbols in a row.
In real world, those symbols would have been weighed differently so that they're more likely to come on the first two reels and much less likely to come on the last reel, resulting in a near-miss situation.
I advise you not to play at all because slot machine odds are never good, but if you're going to play anyway, here's how you can find the slot machines that likely have better odds than others.
Why We Lose At Slots
We lose at slot machines because they're set to give back less than they take on average. It's impossible to play slot machines better; you can just press spin and hope for the best. With that said, though, you can improve your odds of winning at slot machines greatly by making good decisions before playing and having a good strategy when entering a casino - more about that lower on this page.
Generally, the more decisions you can make in a casino game, the lower the house edge is (with optimal play). Since there's almost no room for decisions when playing slots machines - again, your only decision is to press spin - the house edge is high at slots when compared to other popular casino games. And since you play slot machines for real money so fast (400-800 spins an hour), you lose more at slots than at any other casino game. (Read how slots work to understand them better.)
Like most casino games, a slot machine is a game of independent trials (the previous game has no influence on the next game). Your chances of winning with each spin are the same regardless of whether you've lost or won. So, there's absolutely no room for in-play slot machine strategy.
How Much Do Slot Machines Pay Back?
A slot machine's payback percentage could be anywhere from 75% to almost 100%, but of course, always lower than 100% (otherwise, the casino would make no profit). You can calculate a casino game's house edge by subtracting its payback percentage from 100% - this is how much the casino makes per bet in the long run. For example, with a 5% house edge, casinos make $5 per every $100 bet.
Calculating a slot machine's payback percentage is easy if you have all the information available: multiply the probability of each outcome with what they pay, and the sum is how much the slot machine returns in the long run, also known as its 'payback.'
But most of the time we don't have that information. We're in the dark -- sure, casinos can claim certain payback or payout percentages but how do we know they're truthful? Some online casinos get their payouts reviewed by private auditors, but how do we know if the auditors are honest?
It's a different situation with games like blackjack or roulette; in both cases we can calculate the house edge because the rules are known. If you care enough to make the calculations (and you should), you'll know exactly how much you stand to lose or win in the long run.
You could argue that casinos make so much money from slot machines that they have no reason to cheat. I agree, but you can still get a raw deal even if they are honest (setting a low payback percentage is not cheating). I want to have an idea of what kind of a return I get for my money regardless of the honesty of the casino. (See how to pick slot machines to find the best slots to play.)
Not only do casinos keep slot machine players in the dark about payback percentages, they have also weighed slot machine reels differently, resulting in as many near-miss moments as possible, which encourage future play. The first reel is the likeliest to hit something, the second reel is less likely to hit and the third reel is even less likely to hit.
NOTE: Some casinos are tested by auditors that publish monthly payout percentages for everyone to see online - now, 'payout' is different from 'payback.' The actual money that the casino has returned to players through their games is 'payouts' and the theoretical money that the slot machines are set to return is 'payback.' Payouts can be influenced by huge jackpot wins, for example, in which case a month's payout would look much better than the games have been set to pay back.
How You Can Win More
Here's the truth: the best thing you can do is to stay far away from slot machines (and stay clear from myths). Losing less is winning more and you can lose the least by never playing slots, even if you knew how to play slot machines the optimal way.
But you came here to learn how to play slots for real money, so I have to assume that you will play them at some point. Good news: you can win more (or, in fact, lose less) by playing the right slot machines at the right casinos.
The main consideration is always payback but you should also pay attention to casino comps and other benefits (such as cashback) that come along with playing at casinos.
Why to Play Slots
Some of you may wonder why to play slot machines at all. Exactly. They're a terrible investment -- think of a machine that you put $1 in and receive $0.95 back. That is basically a slot machine, except for all the sounds and animations, and of course a chance to win a lot of money, perhaps even millions of dollars.
The odds are heavily against you winning that money though. Meanwhile, in the long run, the casino takes your dollar bills and gives you back less. So if you agree to participate in this weird transaction, the least you can do is to find the casinos and slot machines that give you back the most money.
How to Find the Best Casino Slots to Play
If you're going to play in Las Vegas or some other popular gambling destination, take a look at this survey. It'll give you a good idea of how the location of the casino affects the general payback percentage of its slot machines; the best Las Vegas casinos are located mainly in North Las Vegas, not on the Strip. You can use the same logic in other places where there are many casinos around, although if you're 'stuck' with only a few, I'm not sure if location makes much of a difference.
After selecting a casino that potentially has a high payback percentage on average, an important part of a good slot machine strategy is to immediately join the casino's Slot Club (could be called 'Player's Club' as well). Contrary to popular myths, Slot Club members have the same house edge in their games as other players; the difference is, casinos can track Slot Club members (you have to insert a Club membership card to the slot machine when you play) and it helps them to give you comps when you deserve them (otherwise you may miss-out on them). You'll likely receive something extra just for signing up - free money to play with or a free drink, for example.
Additionally, most casinos give Slot Club members cashback (0.5% per bet, for example) and that is almost like playing against less house edge, although not literally. You don't win more likely but you receive a portion of your bets back.
Now, look around the casino. I bet you feel the temptation to head over to the flashiest slot machines with the biggest jackpots. That's what most slot players do and it's exactly the opposite of the best way to play slots. Unless your only goal is to win a million dollars (regardless of how unrealistic it is), playing progressive jackpot slots is the worst slot machine strategy you can choose. Many make that mistake and it's no wonder why US casinos get 70% of their revenues from slot machines.
Odds in Progressive Jackpot Slots
The only way you can win a million dollars playing slots is to play slot machines with progressive jackpots, however, you get even worse odds to win than you would get if you played flat-top slots.
The odds of winning a jackpot are usually way better on the first reel of the machine than on the last one. The casino wants to create as many 'near-miss' moments as possible -- it is a psychological trick, designed to make the player want to to play more.
It's easy to see why near-misses work: if you're one symbol away from winning a jackpot, it'll leave you with a different feeling than if the jackpot wasn't close at all.
In reality, it only seemed to be close.
In Nevada, the regulations state that one stop on the reel can't be weighted more than six times the stops before and after it (many have adopted this rule).
Symbol | 1st Reel | 2nd Reel | 3rd Reel |
Blank | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Jackpot | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Blank | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Progressive slot machine odds could be weighed like above; the first reel hits a jackpot symbol once out of five times while the third reel only hits once out of 13 times, often resulting in mentioned 'near-miss' situations.
But that was a simplified example. Hitting a progressive jackpot usually has more symbols, of course, and way worse odds. The chances of winning the biggest of them all, Megabucks, are somewhere in the 1:50,000,000, according to John Robinson at Casino City Times.
Progressive slot machine odds are worse than flat-top machines (the ones without a progressive jackpot) -- this is because a part of the bet goes to the jackpot while the casino takes its own cut. Unless the size of the jackpot is huge - in which case playing jackpot slots could be worth it - it always makes sense to choose a simple fixed jackpot slot machine.
So which slot machine types are best for you?
The simplest slot machines, also known as 'straight' or 'flat-top' slots, are your best choice financially. No, you can't win a million dollars playing those machines, and yes, they're less flashy than other slots, but they're the best slot games to play at a casino. For every dollar you bet, you may have to lose 10 cents more to flashier machines with progressive jackpots - that's a huge difference in the long run.
So now that you've chosen a simple machine, let's think about your betting strategy for slot machines (I'm not referring to progression betting systems; they don't work):
- Choose the highest denomination. The higher the denomination, the lower the house edge. For example, nickel slots have a higher house edge than dollar slots.
- Bet the maximum amount of coins. There's usually an incentive to bet maximum coins. For example, the jackpot becomes bigger relative to the bet, giving you a better return from the machine (odds stay the same but payout increases relatively more than bet size).
- Bet slowly. Not because pressing the Spin button fast or slow would impact your odds of winning at slot machines, but because it's a viable slot machine strategy because you have more time to play with your money and the longer you stay at a casino, the more comps you'll probably receive.
Slots machines, as games of chance (rather than skill), are generally more about having fun than they are about making money.
However, there are things you can do to maximize your wins and minimize your losses. For example, by calculating a slot machine’s payout percentage, you can obtain a larger picture idea of how much money you stand to win back. Other tactics include using effective bankroll management techniques, joining a slots club to benefit from its rewards programs, and more.
What Are the Odds of Winning on a Slot Machine?
Slot machine odds used to be easy to calculate. When you’re dealing with three reels, ten symbols on each reel, and a limited pay table, then it’s just a simple math problem. But the rise of electromechanical slot machines and (later) video slots added some complexity to the situation.
How Probability Works
Probability has two meanings. One is the likelihood of whether or not something will happen. The other is the branch of mathematics that calculates that likelihood. To understand the odds as they relate to slot machines (or any other gambling game), you have to understand the basic math behind probability.
Don’t worry though. The math isn’t hard. Probability involves addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division, all of which you learned in middle school.
The first principle of probability is that every event has a probability of between 0 and 1. If something has no chance of ever happening, then its probability is 0. If something will always happen, no matter what, then its probability is 1.
Probability is, therefore, always a fraction. It can be expressed in multiple ways, as a decimal, as a fraction, as a percentage, and as odds.
A simple example is a coin flip. The probability of getting heads when you flip a coin is 50%. That’s common sense, but how is it determined mathematically?
You simply take the total number of possible outcomes, and divide the outcome you’re trying to determine the probability of it by that number. There are two possibilities when flipping a coin, heads or tails, but only one of them is heads. That’s 1 divided by 2, which can be expressed as ½, 50%, 0.5, or 1 to 1 odds.
Odds are expressed as the number of ways something won’t happen versus the number of ways that something will happen. For example, if you’re rolling a single six-sided die, and you want to know the odds of rolling a six, you’re looking at 5 to 1 odds. There are five ways to roll something other than a six, and only one way of rolling a six.
When you want to determine the probability of multiple things happening, you use addition or multiplication, depending on whether you want to determine whether one OR the other event will occur, or whether you want to determine whether one event AND the other event will occur.
If you’re looking at an “OR” question, you add the probabilities together. If you’re looking at an “AND” question, you multiply the probabilities by each other.
So if you want to know what the probability of rolling two dice and having one or the other come up with a six, you add the probabilities together. 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6, which is rounded down to 1/3.
If you want to know the probability of rolling two dice and having BOTH of them come up six, you multiply the probabilities. 1/6 X 1/6 = 1/36.
How Slot Machine Odds USED to Work
Early slot machines were mechanical devices. They had three metal reels that had ten possible stops each.
To calculate the odds of a single symbol appearing on a reel, you just divide the one symbol by the total number of potential outcomes. So if you had one cherry on a reel, your odds of hitting that cherry were 1/10, or 10%.
To calculate the odds of getting three cherries, you multiple 1/10 X 1/10 X 1/10 and get 1/1000, or 0.1%.
If the odds of hitting that symbol are the same as all the others, then you have 10 possible jackpots you can win, which means that your chances of winning SOMETHING are 10/1000, which is 1%.
Most people wouldn’t play a slot machine that lost 99 times out of 100, though, so slot machine designers added additional, smaller prizes for getting two symbols out of three for certain symbols. And as long as they paid out less in prizes than the odds of hitting those jackpots, then those slots are guaranteed to make a profit in the long run.
For example, if a prize for hitting three cherries was $1000, you’d be playing a break-even game, but if the prize were $750, it’s easy to see how the casino would be guaranteed a profit. The difference between the odds of winning and the payout odds is where the casino makes its money.
How Slot Machines Work Now
Modern slot machines use a computer program called a random number generator to determine the outcomes of the various spins of the reels. This creates an imaginary reel with a number of symbols limited only by the program in question.
A mechanical slot machine with 256 symbols per reel would be huge, too large to play, much less to build. But a computer can create an imaginary reel with 256 symbols per reel and take up no more space than an iPod Shuffle.
To make things even more interesting and entertaining, slot machine designers can program different probabilities for each symbol to come up. Most symbols might come up once every 256 spins, but others might come up twice as often, while still others might only come up half as often.
This enables slot machine designers and casinos to offer slot machine games with far larger jackpots than they were able to when they were limited by mechanical reels. And they’re able to offer these large jackpots and still generate a healthy profit.
How Does This Relate to Payback Percentages?
The payback percentage is the amount of money that the slot machine is designed to pay out over an enormous number of spins. This number is almost always less than 100%. The difference between 100% and the payback percentage is the house edge, and that’s where the casino makes its profits.
A simple example can help illustrate how this works. Suppose you have a slot machine with three reels with ten symbols on each, and it only pays out when three cherries hit. The odds of winning that jackpot, as we determined earlier, is 1/1000.
If we set the jackpot as $900, and charge $1 per bet, the payout percentage for that game will be 90%, or $900/$1000. Of course, no one would play a slots game which only paid out once in every 1000 spins, which is why there are various smaller payouts programmed in.
There’s no way to tell what the payback percentage on a particular game is unless you have access to the par sheet for that machine. Casino management has that information, but players never have access to that info.
The best slot machine odds are almost always found in real casinos. If you see slot machines in an airport or a bar, be aware that the payback percentages on those games is much lower than you’ll see in a real casino.
How to Win at Slot Machines
Best Odds Of Winning Slots
Everyone would like to know how to win at slots, but the truth is that winning at slot machines isn’t any harder than losing at slot machines. You put your money in the machine, spin the reels, and hope for the best. Slot machines are meant to be fun; they’re not intended to provide the player with an income.
In fact, the reality is just the opposite. Slots are there to provide the casino owners with an income. How that works is one of the subjects of this page.
On the other hand, you can minimize your losses and increase your enjoyment of slots games by understanding how they work. You can also learn which slots pay back the most money. In the long run, the house will still have an edge over you, but understanding how much you can expect to lose in a given venue can help you make better bankroll management decisions.
In fact, it might be a good idea to modify you definition of “winning at slots”. Instead of considering yourself a winner if you bring home a big profit, consider yourself a winner any time you played and had a lot of fun.
How Slots Work
All slot machines in modern casinos use a random number generator (an “RNG) to determine the results of each spin. An RNG is a tiny computer that does nothing but constantly generate numbers. When you push the spin button, that microcomputer selects a number which determines the outcome. In fact, this happens before the reels have even stopped spinning.
On modern slot machines, the reels are just there for show. From a practical standpoint, you could put a quarter in a machine, push a button, and have the screen flash: “You lose!” or “You win $10”. The mechanism that determined the outcome would be the same, but who would want to play a game like that, especially if you know that the house has a mathematical edge over the player.
The spinning reels, the sound effects, and the bonus games are all there to make the game more interesting to play. If you don’t like the artwork, the music, or any other aspect of a slots game, don’t bother playing it, because those are the real rewards of playing. The chance of getting lucky and winning a jackpot is a real reward, too, but don’t ignore the other aspects of the game.
The random number generator is programmed to pay back a certain percentage of the money paid into it over a period of time. This period of time is known in gambling math as “the long run”, and it’s a lot longer than most people think. We’re talking about tens of thousands of spins, not dozens or hundreds.
This percentage that’s programmed into these machines is always less than 100%. If a slots game were programmed to pay back more than 100% of the money put into it, it would lose money for the casino.
Casinos aren’t in business to lose money.
The trick is to find slot machines that have the highest payout percentages.
Which Slots Pay Back the Most Money
If every slot machine game in the world had a payback percentage posted on the machine somewhere, it would be easy to determine which slots pay back the most money. You could limit your play to machines with a payback percentage of over 95% for example.
It’s too bad casinos don’t provide that information on specific games, though.
You can find information about specific locations and their payback percentages, though. Some gambling guides and magazines publish this information. For example, The American Casino Guide provides certified information about the payout percentages in various states. Not all states reveal this information, but it’s not a huge leap of logic to expect better payback percentages in states that do reveal this information.
For example, the overall payback percentage for slots in Black Hawk, Colorado is 92.8%. In Central City, Colorado, it’s 92.93%, and in Cripple Creek, it’s 93.66%. Alabama doesn’t release the numbers on their payback percentages.
Which casinos do you think offer the better game?
A couple of guidelines hold true no matter where you play, though. One of those is that payouts are better in large cities with lots of gambling. For example, the payouts in Vegas are higher overall than the payouts in Colorado. And the payouts improve when you play for higher stakes. For example, penny slots in Vegas average around 88% to 91%, but dollars slots average between 93% and 96%. Finally, slot machines at airports usually offer the lowest payouts.
What does that mean for the player? It means that over the long run, if you wager $x on a particular game, you’ll win back $x times the payback percentage for that machine. If you’re playing a dollar slot machine on the Strip in Las Vegas, for example, and the payout percentage is around 93%, then if you place $10,000 in wagers, you’ll win back $9300. You lost $700.
Odds Of Winning On Slots
That’s only a long term mathematical expectation, though. In the short run, anything can happen, and that’s what keeps people playing.
How to Maximize Your Winnings and Minimize Your Losses
There are three ways to maximize your winnings and minimize your losses. The first is to always join the slots club, and always use your member card while you play. Slots club members get a percentage of their play returned to them in the form of casino rewards and cash back. This is normally a tiny percentage (think 0.1% or 0.2%), but it adds up, especially if you play a lot.
Don’t buy into the myth that playing with your slots club card lowers your expected return on the game, either. That’s not true. The random number generator in these games has no way of knowing whether or not you’re using your slots club card or not.
The second way to increase your winnings and minimize your losses is to use effective bankroll management techniques. This means limiting the amount of time that you play, limiting the amount of money that you’re willing to lose in any session and in any given gambling trip, and finding other fun things to do with your time besides just playing the slots.
Odds Of Winning A Jackpot On A Slot Machine
Finally, try to play the machines with the highest payout percentage. Over the long run, if you keep playing, you’ll probably eventually wind up a loser at the slots (unless you hit a huge progressive jackpot), but you’ll lose your money more slowly and get more entertainment value for the money you gambled.